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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
That scary Pentagon report on climate change
I've hit the snooze button too many times before posting this, so this post is sorta stale, but here it is anyway:
Normally brilliant friends like Lanny Cardow have lapped up the leftist spin after an alarmist -- actually, apocalyptic -- news report in Britain's leftwing newspaper, the Observer (Sunday Guardian) claimed that a report said climate change would lead to catastrophe and anarchy and nuclear war in the future. Lanny went so far as to call it "A bad day for those (like JBro) who have dismissed global warming as an imaginary threat envisioned by leftist scientists. Now even The Pentagon has recognised the threat of climate change."
Some clips from the article: "A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world," the report says.
Later on: 'Disruption and conflict will be endemic features of life,' concludes the Pentagon analysis. 'Once again, warfare would define human life.'
And especially, uh, interesting: "The findings will prove humiliating to the Bush administration, which has repeatedly denied that climate change even exists. Experts said that they will also make unsettling reading for a President who has insisted national defence is a priority."
While this report made for a great story, it might be accused of being, to coin a term, "sexed-up."
First, it is universally acknowleged that the Sunday newspapers in London are somewhat unreliable. The burden of proof is lower for stories, and they tend to be a tad sensationalist. (Even reporters who work for them will admit this privately.)
Second, it must be made clear is that this report does not represent the official view of the Pentagon. The report was commissioned by a Pentagon official, Andy Marshall, who runs the Office of Special Plans, an outfit dedicated to conceptualizing and planning for a wide range of future scenarios.
Third, one must go a ways down to find the most important paragraph, which makes it easy to miss:
Climate change 'should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a US national security concern', say the authors, Peter Schwartz, CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell Group, and Doug Randall of the California-based Global Business Network.
A little research shows that these are two very curious individuals. They are FUTURISTS. It is their job to think up wacky -- even unlikely -- future scenarios. The company where they work, the Global Business Network, is an entity that is dedicated to thinking up these "scenarios."
Mr. Randall is obviously brilliant (Wharton MBA) but no mention of any experience on the global warming file. Check out his bio here. Some highlights: "Doug has published articles, book chapters, and white papers on scenario-based planning, the Internet...Doug served as a Vice President at Snapfish, a photo-processing company with a strong Internet presence. While there, he was responsible for customer acquisition, signing over 50 strategic partnerships...He works on a variety of projects often related to information technology, consumer electronics, financial services, and global sustainability."
The other co-author, Peter Schwartz, listed as a "CIA consultant and former head of planning at Royal Dutch/Shell group," is a co-founder of this so-called futurist company, GBN. (Note: Another of GBN's founders, Stewart Brand, is also a founder of the Whole Earth Catalog, which says the catalogue "found immediate success with the youth movement, selling millions of copies and quickly becoming the unofficial handbook of the counter-culture." That publication eventually morphed into Whole Earth Magazine, but only after a short stint as Co-Evolution Quarterly, which "furthered social change and new movements by introducing ideas such as the gaia hypothesis, watershed consciousness, whole system thinking, and voluntary simplicity to readers." And get this, again from the mags own site: "An early issue was edited by the Black Panther Party, another by beat poets Lawrence Ferlinghetti and Michael McClure.")
Anyway, the point is that this report represents nothing concrete or scientific at all, and the authors are a little out there. It's like playing craps. It is unlikely it will ever happen. But unfortunately, Lanny took the bait. Others falling into the trap include AFP, the Sydney Morning Herald, and, of course, Greenpeace.
The whole "secret" report is online here.)
Thanks to Tim Blair (who notes that this story wasn't even a "scoop" at all for the Observer, Fortune magazine had it last month) and Lorne Gunter, one of Canada's smartest and hard-working columnists, for all the help with this.
UPDATE: Lorne has in fact done his Edmonton Journal column on this subject, but it doesn't appear to be online.
UPDATE II: No!!!! AH took the bait too!!
UPDATE III: Check out Iain Murray's excellent NRO piece about the report here.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 8:54 AM
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