Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.

Sunday, June 27, 2004

Election prediction

Here is my prediction for seat totals, as posted at Across the Board a couple of days ago:

"I think the undecideds will break Conservative (if they were going to go with the status quo -- the Liberals -- they wouldn't still be undecided at this point) and conservative parties generally do better on election day than in polls leading-up to it.

My prediction is that the Conservatives win the popular vote, 35-29. Seat count:

Conservatives 129
Liberals 99
Bloc 55
NDP 23
Ind. 2 (Jim Pankiw in SK, Chuck Cadman in BC)

In this circumstance, even a Liberal/NDP alliance would not be able to form a government, leaving the Conservatives in power and forcing them to forge ad hoc coalitions with the Bloc. It will be an interesting next few months."

# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:28 PM

  

 

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