Criticism was hurled my way after I claimed Stephen Harper would likely never become Prime Minister of Canada. When the Brault revelations at the Gomery Inquiry came out, Tories were gleefully expecting their man to easily soar to 24 Sussex. Looks like they spoke too soon.
Take stock of what's happened. The government responsible for the biggest or second-biggest corruption scandal in Canadian in history (it's a toss-up between this and Sir John A.'s Pacific railway scandal) has survived a non-confidence vote. They manoeuvred brilliantly in the last three weeks with a PR blitz and some top-notch hardball politics.
So now there's no election, even though it seemed almost inevitable as late as last weekend. The Tories under Harper are mired in the 25-30% range in most polls. And now the knives are ... well, let's not say they're out, but they're at least being sharpened.
Let's be clear: The Conservative Party is no further ahead today than when the merger occured. Amazing, but true. I'm at a loss to explain it other than to say the problem must be Harper himself.
Sure there are other things: the Conservatives' constantly negative tone, their lack of presentation of an alternative vision, etc... But leave the party's amateurish communications shop and questionable strategical decisions aside for a moment.
Harper just doesn't seem to appeal to voters in central Canada. And no, I don't think it is because he's from Alberta. It's just that he's not an appealing person. He comes across as cold and uncaring. Call him charisma-deprived.
I saw media guru Barry McLoughlin quoted somewhere saying Harper was missing what he called the HOAG ("hell of a guy") factor. That's the quality that leaders like Mike Harris and Ralph Klein have; they are guys you can see yourself sitting beside in the local pub and shooting the breeze with. It's unfortunate that politics is that superficial but it is. Has been for a long time.
The only question is whether Harper can ever rectify this shortcoming. Or even if he did, is it already too late?
UPDATE: Similarly-themed posts, along with interesting comments, are here and here.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:29 AM
