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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Friday, December 09, 2005
What in heck is going on?
Poll after poll shows virtually no change in the national numbers, and some even show Liberal gains. The latest from Léger shows a 12-point Liberal lead:
The Leger Marketing survey done for The Canadian Press put support for the Liberals at 39 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP stood at 16 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois at 12 and the Green party at five. The poll of 2006 people, conducted Friday through Wednesday, suggested the Liberals were ahead of the Tories by a whopping 19 points in the key battleground of Ontario and by 16 points in Atlantic Canada. I expect we'll get a healthy sampling of other new polls tonight and in Saturday's papers.
What is going on here?
A 20-point Liberal lead in Ontario? After all of Stephen Harper's solid policy announcements? I have to admit being a bit surprised. I think this phenomenon can be blamed on one of the following three things:
1. Voters are not following the election yet so the Conservative policy announcements are having no impact.
This is, I think, the most plausible explanation. People are focused on Christmas shopping, exams, etc ... and are not paying attention to the campaign. No one will really tune in until the new year, at which point the polls could move in the Tories' direction.
2. Voters don't like the policy announcements.
I doubt it. The policies, especially the GST cut, are solid ones. The Harper daycare plan is far better than the Liberal one; I have yet to meet a parent who says, if they had the choice, that they'd rather have their kid in government-run daycare than at home with them.
3. Voters in Central Canada have already ruled out voting Tory, and nothing is going to change their minds.
Only time will tell.
UPDATE: David Mader's point is an important one. Today's Globe headlines the regional shift in the numbers, and the Tories are in fact picking up ground some areas, including all-important Southwestern Ontario.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:43 AM
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