If I've learned one thing over the last couple of years, its that election results are nearly impossible to predict. My prediction from last time were way off, but so were everyone else's. Everyone was predicting a Tory minority, because no one foresaw the slippage in support the weekend before the vote. Those predictions look like a safe bet again for this time, although the Conservatives should do a bit better.
Conservative -- 134
Liberal -- 79
Bloc -- 58
NDP -- 36
Indep. -- 1 (André Arthur in Portneuf)
I'm hesitant to do anything more specific because the only region I've been following closely is Québec. I think the Tories win five seats here: Louis St. Laurent (Verner), Beauce (Bernier), Pontiac (Cannon), Lévis Bellechasse (Blaney), and Lotbinière Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (Gourde). Which, by the way, is nothing short of astounding. I was dead wrong on Québec too; I didn't think the Tories could win anything here. But, again, neither did anyone else.
If this does happen, it will be the best showing by a non-Quebecer Tory leader since Diefenbaker in 1965!
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 2:18 PM
