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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Tuesday, February 07, 2006
Cabinet fallout
The reactions to yesterday's cabinet unveiling have been interesting: both the punditocracy and Conservatives appear be split on the Two Big Stories, ie. Fortier and Emerson. I sense real uneasiness in the Tory ranks with this -- even some of the people who are publicly blogging or speaking in favour of what happened are privately none too pleased.
All sorts of excuses have been offered up: from the obvious (Emerson wanted to defect, the Tories were happy to have him, and they needed representation in Vancouver and Montreal, so come on over!) to the plausible but likely incorrect (the Tories did it so that Emerson/Fortier would overshadow the fact that Harper actually named quite a right-wing cabinet.)
I think its probably a combo of a bunch of factors, but I still chalk it up as a miscalculation. I don't think the Conservatives anticipated this much disapproval from their base. (Overestimating base loyalty is a mistake made by the Republicans in the U.S. as well. Anyone remember Harriet Miers?) I think the Harper braintrust figured it was better to get the Emerson defection out on the same day as the swearing in rather than later, so that it would be only one of many stories. But it is nonetheless dominating today's news.
I have no doubt that Harper did this, which is unquestionably a breach of his own principles, for his greater goal of making the Conservatives a long-term winning party. Harper is a strategic thinker. He is a long-term thinker. He doesn't care about day-to-day policies or piecemeal change, he is interested in the Big Picture.
For a glimpse into what's driving him, a good place to start is here -- Terry O'Neill's Western Standard interview with the Tory leader from early January. This piece may be the most important article written during the campaign. (BTW, I think it's good idea for anyone, conservative or not, to read media that is perceived as "friendly" to particular political personalities. Interview subjects sometimes open up more when they know they won't be pilloried by the writer later. So what I'm saying is that the Western Standard should be mandatory reading while the Tories are in government.)
Anyway, here's what Harper told O'Neill:
"Let me mention one thing to you," the Conservative leader stated. "I don't know whether we'll reap the rewards of it in this election, but one thing I've done in this party, which really hasn't been reported or appreciated by the media, is moving the party into the cultural communities in the country." The way the party is achieving this, he continues, is by appealing to their conservative values. "These groups are, for the most part, economically and socially conservative people."
"It's a longer-term project," he continued. "But my goal has always been to do more than win an election, to form a majority government. My goal is to create a new natural governing party. One of the ways we are going to do that, we are going to displace the Liberals as the party of new Canadians. Because those new Canadians are not liberal in thinking. They are conservative."
Tada! New Candians. They're in the cities. Like Toronto and Montreal. Harper wants them. He needs them to create a majority governing coalition. Fortier/Emerson is a small step in this direction.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 2:01 PM
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