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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
On the Liberals
I remember something Scott Reid said during a panel discussion I did with him a couple of months ago: that if faced with a final ballot choice with Stéphane Dion and another candidate, the Liberal Party would be hard-pressed not to choose him, a francophone Québecer, at this point in its history. He was right.
I'm going to leave the real analysis to the pros. There's going to be some great behind-the-scenes type pieces out in the next few days. But right now I can't help but be happy for Dion. I love a story where the Establishment gets kicked in the teeth. Most of the careerist/snobby types lined up behind Ignatieff; the PowerCorp cabal was behind Rae, and they both lost. That was good to see for a change.
There's so many stories coming out of this:
How is it that Ignatieff was so incapable of growth? Judging from the people I talked to, it was a combo of his being out of the country so long and his responsibility for the nation québécoise debate. Something serious clearly repelled almost everyone who wasn't a hard-core first ballot supporter of his.
What does this mean for the Tories? Will the next election be fought over Kyoto? If yes, bad news for Harper.
Will the Liberals unite? You could sense a look of "what have we just done?" on some faces during the acceptance speech, including some of the folks on stage. Denis Coderre just implied on Radio-Canada that he might not run again. Public displays of unity mean nothing.
Will Québecers take to Dion? Many media types and elites in the province say he is hated; I'm not so sure. I think Dion could make serious advances in Québec. Will Harper have to find a new strategy for a majority? Dion is a francophone Québecer after all -- if you look at electoral history, that factor matters a lot.
And remember, every knock against Dion will be the same things said about Harper: too stiff, too cerebral, etc. Don't believe it. Underestimate this man at your peril. Just look at what he's done already. I think he may be a very good Liberal leader and a serious challenger for 24 Sussex.
Anyway, this is going to be interesting.
ONE MORE THING: Can anyone honestly argue that one-member, one-vote is a superior leadership selection system after this? (Besides Belinda.) The verdict is in.
ONE MORE MORE THING: Those who would be tempted to use the "Oh, not another Québec Liberal leader" line should watch it. Despite its truthfulness, it is a terrible strategy that fails. It would also very much hurt the Conservative cause in Québec in the next election.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 6:48 PM
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