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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Tuesday evening notes
- Lorrie Goldstein elaborates further on a point made here on Jan. 10: that the negative Liberal ad slamming Mike Harris was a lie.
- Is it just me or has anyone else picked up on the irony that Magna's new "Next Great Prime Minister" TV show (to be aired this Saturday night at 8pm on CTV) is being hosted by four ex-PMs -- Mulroney, Campbell, Clark and Turner -- the latter three of which could be considered the most ungreat PMs in our history? Just sayin'. By the way, do watch the show. Our good friend Deirdra McCracken is one of the finalists and my girlfriend accompanied her to Toronto for the taping yesterday. Winner gets $50,000!!!
- I thought Adrienne Clarkson had moved out of Rideau Hall? Sigh.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 6:26 PM
Post McKenna
Frank McKenna's decision to sit out the Liberal leadership came as surprising news to some. I wasn't that shocked. When he stepped down as Ambassador I figured he would take his time before deciding what to do next. He took a week, and decided he didn't want to spend the next decade of his life digging his party out of a $30-million debt and speaking in church basements in Brandon, Manitoba.
Would you? Can we please cut the man some slack?
McKenna's reasoning process was probably similar to the one undertook by Mike Harris when the latter was contemplating the Tory leadership in 2004. Why would any successful ex-Premier, capable of making oodles in the private sector, want to go back to public life for this? And with no guarantee of ever winning the top job? It's pretty clear why McKenna is sitting this one out.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:02 AM
Monday, January 30, 2006
Praise for the CBC
An informal rule I like to keep on this blog is to give credit to enemies/opponents/detractors and things/people/stuff that I would normally criticize when they do good. Tonight, such credit is due to the CBC, whose documentary "Shakin' All Over" was very, very good. They threw in a little bit of CanCod feel-goody stuff, but only in the last five minutes of the two-hour special. They covered all the bases, interviewed everyone from Randy Bachman to Robbie Robertson to Anne Murray to Sarah Harmer to Buffie St. Marie. I learned a lot about how much 1960s rock music history is tied to Canada. If you missed it, don't worry. I'm sure it will air about 10 more times in the next few months.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:15 PM
The strange case of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
If you haven't been paying attention to this story yet, you should. Danielle Smith provides us with the 411 on the odd election results in the northern Saskatchewan riding of
Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, where incumbent Tory MP Jeremy Harrison lost by 106 votes. There is a priori evidence of full-blown cheating. As Smith tells us: Harrison was leading the race by more than 200 votes on election night, waiting on the last poll of the Ahtahkakoop Cree Nation. It finally came in about 11:30 p.m. It appears that voters on this reserve are among the most patriotic Canadians in the country. While pundits elsewhere were fretting about low voter turnout, Ahtahkakoop's 104-per-cent turnout provides a remarkable example of the enthusiasm with which these reserve residents embraced their civic duty. There were 372 residents on the voters' list in Monday night's election -- and 388 people cast ballots. Uh, ya. Of course, if Harrison had been the candidate for any party other than the Tories, you know this story would be the headline in The Globe and Mail. But no. Of course not.
Let's hope Elections Canada lives up to his duty, orders a full investigation into these shenanigans and that the rule of law wins the day.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 1:10 PM
Sunday, January 29, 2006
Leftwing hysterics
Anyone wondering how the Canadian Left is going to react to various Harper government initiatives? The Conservatives have been out of power for so long they probably forget what to do. Silly me. Of course they don't. It will inolve the creation of ad hoc coalitions to "save Canada's social fabric" blah blah blah and a lot of personal hit jobs on various Tories to the effect of:
"Harper is an extremist. He's so out of touch with Canadian values! He just appointed XYZ to X post, who, if you can believe it, is an ex-director of the Carlyle Group! That's the company staked with Bushitler people! And XYZ owned shares in WorldCom in 1997! I even hear he used to have a house near Conrad Black's in Palm Beach. And even more amazingly, his ex-sister-in-law once attended a fundraiser where Dick Cheney was present! Can you believe this outrage?"
Yup. It's already started.
PS - My Macleans.ca blog is still up and should continue for a few more days.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:26 AM
Saturday, January 28, 2006
Reno
The Harper transition
I'm told there is some quiet grumbling in certain Conservative Party circles over the Mulroney-esque nature of the Harper transition team. Some people are apparently unhappy that these people are in charge of the early big decisions -- certain to be some of the most important ones for this government -- when they played little to no role in the campaign victory or in the Conservative Party at all. My response is RELAX! This group of people, in particular Derek Burney, have a wealth of knowledge that, to be candid, no one from the Reform-Canadian Alliance tradition has. Burney knows how to deal with the mandarins in Ottawa. He can put a happy -- not to mention credible -- face on Harper's impending changes. And let's hope there are big changes coming at the bureaucratic level, at least at the highest ranks. Mulroney's failure to clean house was a huge impediment early on to implementing his agenda. (See Appendix C in The Secret Mulroney Tapes.)
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 9:22 AM
Friday, January 27, 2006
No CBC Sunday
Sadly, CBC Sunday has again postponed our interview. They now hope to air it Sunday, February 5. Will let you know.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 5:39 PM
Thursday, January 26, 2006
About that urban/rural divide
I've gotten a bit of flack for my oped yesterday, where I noted that the Tories have to do a lot more to win over urban voters. One old and trusted friend from Calgary chided me, accusing me of "Torontothink." This person pointed out that 400,000 people in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver voted Conservatives and that the Tories took 6 GTA ridings. Also, the Tories swept the urban cities of Calgary and Edmonton. (This is true.)
My response? Sorry, it's not good enough. For the Tories to win a majority next time they have to do better. They need 40 more seats.Many will have to come from Ontario. As was summed up by Paul Tuns:
The Tories were shut out of Halifax, Montreal, London, Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton, Markham, Hamilton, Windsor, Vancouver, Victoria, and large parts of Winnipeg and Regina, not to mention smaller cities such as Fredericton, Moncton, Saint John, Brantford, Guelph and Kingston. There are a few exceptions (Oshawa and parts of Ottawa and Winnipeg) but not many.
So I stick by my guns. We've heard enough armchair diagnoses. The Conservative Party must find out the real reasons for this problem through actual research and study (yes, talking to them!) and then take steps to fix this.
UPDATE: Andrew Coyne weighs in on the issue.
UPDATE II: My friend James Moore, MP has come out decidedly against me here. OK, fine. I admit it: the Tories had success in some cities! How specific with language do we have to get here? The problem is with New Canadians in the largest cities, and suburbun Ontario constituences.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 1:38 PM
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
There's much work left to do
From today's Ottawa Citizen oped:
The day after Paul Martin's government fell last November, I had an article published on this page labelled "How the Tories can win." My recipe was simple. The Conservatives needed to do three things: give Canadians an idea of what they stand for, not just what they stand against; define Stephen Harper before the Liberals and the media did it first; and present innovative and counterintuitive policies to attract new voters. The Conservatives did all three. They put out a platform chock-full of ideas that were both positive and forward-looking. Throughout the campaign Mr. Harper stayed on message, looked relaxed and appeared to be having fun. He played the patriotism card and championed national unity. Some of his policies were surprising, such as the GST cut and tax credits for children's sports. Read on. (no subscription required)
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 9:31 AM
Must read Joan Tintor, Version VXXIIV
Joan Tintor, the font of knowledge and information that she is, has thrown together a hit parade of (now) totally erroneous and embarassing quotes and predictions about what Paul Martin's reign would look like. It's pretty funny. Seems like yesterday that we all thought he was headed for a 200-seat majority and an eradication of the Bloc in Quebec.
I remember a conversation I had with Tom Long about Martin about three years ago. Everyone at the time knew Martin would be the next Prime Minister. "Just wait," Tom said. "I think Martin has a glass jaw, and when someone hits him, it's gonna break." I dismissed it at the time as wishful thinking. As usual, Tom was right.
Paul Martin is just as much the story of this campaign as Stephen Harper. How anyone who spent 40 years of their life planning for a job and then not have a clue what to do once attaining it seems beyond comprehension. But it happened. Right here. In Canada. I'm not making this up. And I promise, that's the last Liberal ad parody.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:04 AM
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Sober second thoughts
Last night was filled with happiness and disappointment. I just finished an article for tomorrow's Ottawa Citizen looking at next steps. One thing the Tories need to do is look at their urban vote problem. The Tories do not have a single seat in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver. They didn't win a single seat in Mississauga, Brampton or London. This was solid Mike Harris country. Why are these people still voting Liberal? They need to find out why and fix the problem.
My beloved Québec City region pulled through in flying colours! Woohoo. I felt the sea change when I got back from Christmas holidays. Students who had never talked politics with me before were suddenly announcing they were voting Tory, or at least thinking about it. It's been pretty neat. According to one friend, Sylvie Boucher, the new MP for Beauport-Limoilou, didn't even have signs. Shocking to see Richard Marceau, the perfectly bilingual young Bloc MP often seen gracing the TV talk shows, defeated at the hands of the Tories.
Bye for now.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 3:39 PM
A precious 15 minutes
Quick pre-bed thoughts
I have mixed feelings about tonight. So many close races. So many surprises (hooray for Québec!); so many disappointments (boo Belinda.) The Liberal Party showed tonight that it may be down and out, but not for the count. It is one damn resilient party. I thought it nearly impossible that they would hit triple digits. Still, it is a great moment for democracy in Canada and the Conservative Party. I'm surprised Martin stepped down. Classy speech. Federalism has a chance again. The Tories now have a chance to prove themselves. It's going to be tough. Mighty tough. But lots and lots of fun to watch.
Particular congrats go out to my friends who won and those who lost. Goodnight.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 1:57 AM
Monday, January 23, 2006
I voted
...and boy did it feel good. I dunno what it was. There was something different this time. I haven't been this excited for election night returns in, well, ever. Can't wait for the fun to begin.
By the way, I learned when I looked down at my ballot that there is a Progressive Canadians candidate in my riding. The ballot is marked "PC Party / Parti PC" beside his name. This is a trevesty, and I'm shocked Elections Canada allowed this. It is very confusing and I'm sure not a few votes for the Tories will be wasted because of this deception.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 6:46 PM
Sunday, January 22, 2006
Predictions: useless but fun
If I've learned one thing over the last couple of years, its that election results are nearly impossible to predict. My prediction from last time were way off, but so were everyone else's. Everyone was predicting a Tory minority, because no one foresaw the slippage in support the weekend before the vote. Those predictions look like a safe bet again for this time, although the Conservatives should do a bit better.
Conservative -- 134
Liberal -- 79
Bloc -- 58
NDP -- 36
Indep. -- 1 (André Arthur in Portneuf)
I'm hesitant to do anything more specific because the only region I've been following closely is Québec. I think the Tories win five seats here: Louis St. Laurent (Verner), Beauce (Bernier), Pontiac (Cannon), Lévis Bellechasse (Blaney), and Lotbinière Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (Gourde). Which, by the way, is nothing short of astounding. I was dead wrong on Québec too; I didn't think the Tories could win anything here. But, again, neither did anyone else.
If this does happen, it will be the best showing by a non-Quebecer Tory leader since Diefenbaker in 1965!
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 2:18 PM
Jeffrey Simpson, enigma
You'd think one of Canada's best-known pundits would have something interesting to say on the verge of the first Conservative government in 13 years. But instead, Jeffrey Simpson, the Globe and Mail's "national affairs" columnist, devoted his Saturday column to the national affairs of ... Turkey. Then, in today's La Presse, he has a column in French basically endorsing Frank McKenna for Liberal leader.
Also recall that Simpson took off to the UK in April and May 2005 to cover the ins-and-outs of Tony Blair's third successive massive landslide majority at the same time as the Gomery Inquiry heard from witnesses like Chuck Guité and Paul Coffin. Then, upon his return, the day after Beryl Wajsman's fascinating testimony Simpson penned this pertinent column. I'm just sayin'.
(Cross-posted to the Shotgun)
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:48 AM
Saturday, January 21, 2006
Ups and Downs, Week Eight, final installment
Well, this is it. It's over, the last week of Ups and Downs.
The Conservatives - 6/10
Their weakest week of the campaign. As has been widely reported, Stephen Harper "strayed from the script" several times, like asking Paul Martin for apologies for questioning his patriotism. This may have simply been a case of running out of gas. It's been a long campaign, and there aren't any more policy announcements to make. Still, it's never good to stumble home. No disaters, but the Tories certainly did not keep their momentum going, thus likely forgoing the chance at a majority government.
The Liberals - 6/10
Martin is now flailing around like Susan Murray. One senses many Canadians have simply tuned out of the attacks on Harper. He has defeat written all over his face, and it is showing. I cannot believe it. I won't believe it, until about midnight Monday.
Her are the totals for whole campaign (with links) in case you want to look through them:
Week One: Conservatives -- 7/10, Liberals -- 4/10
Week Two: Conservatives -- 8/10, Liberals -- 8/10
Week Three: Conservatives -- 9/10, Liberals 7/10
Week Four: Conservatives -- 9/10, Liberals 7/10
Week Five: Christmas break, no rating
Week Six: Conservatives -- 8/10, Liberals -- 6/10
Week Seven: Conservatives -- 7/10, Liberals -- 4/10
Week Eight: Conservatives -- 6/10, Liberals 6/10
CAMPAIGN AVERAGES:
Tories: 7.7/10
Liberals: 6/10
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:09 PM
First item on the agenda for Stephen Harper on January 24
Friday, January 20, 2006
CBC Sunday
Tasha and I were interviewed recently about our book by Evan Solomon for CBC Sunday. We are told the interview is airing on this week's show. So catch us this Sunday, January 22, at 10 am on CBC TV, or 9am and 3pm on CBC Newsworld.
UPDATE: We have been informed that the interview has been postponed. It will likely air Sunday, January 29 instead.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:53 PM
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Prize for most innovative campaign ad...
...goes to the Tory candidate in my riding, Québec, Frédérik Boisvert. (Translation is: "I have nothing to hide.")
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 3:07 PM
On Basil Hargrove
What would Canadian politics be without Buzz Hargrove? He' such fun. It will be a sad day when he retires. Andrew Coyne has the best post on this sorry affair so far, pointing out that this isn't the first time Basil has been shilling for the Bloc (or PSAC, for that matter. I remember they endorsed the Bloc candidate in the Hull-Aylmer by-election back in 1999).
The sheer lunacy of this whole thing is mind-boggling. (As a friend's MSN name currently reads: Hargrove: "Harper is a separatist! Vote for the Bloc to stop him.") Another nail in the Liberal coffin.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:57 AM
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Bloc support appears to be dwindling
This blog still does not report poll results, but it now appears near-certain that the Bloc will come in much lower than their much-desired 50% because of the Tory surge. A win for federalism. Even some Liberals are happy about it.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 9:23 AM
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
What's different about this election from last
Monday, January 16, 2006
What is going on here?
I was looking over John Duffy's excellent book Fights of Our Lives yesterday to see if I could find any paralells between this campaign and past ones. Seem a good example might be 1957, where Diefenbaker defeated a tired, overconfident Louis St. Laurent. Dief, of course, won a minority government that year, and went on to a landslaide majority a year later.
Obviously, it's too early to tell. But the omens for the Tories are nothing but good. But one line from the book struck me as particularly noteworthy. In fact, it's the very first sentence of the book, and it's only two words long: Elections matter. This campaign is living proof of that. It is why predicting election outcomes, while loads of fun, is an excercise in futility. All predictions are is examining past behaviour, applying it to the present, and assuming it will happen again. None one could have predicted that the Liberals would be running a Kim Campbell-esque campaign. No one. These guys are supposedly the best. Long institutional memory, latest techniques and technology, advice from James Carville, blah blah blah. It all means nothing. Elections matter, and a great campaign from one side combined with a disastrous one on the other + a desire for change = major movement.
I hope John Duffy updates his book to include this campaign -- and after Jan. 23 I have a feelingn he will the time to.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:31 AM
Sunday, January 15, 2006
"Beware the right-wing radicals: Scary conservative authors advocate turning Canada into the U.S."
You don't normally want to draw attention to negative book reviews, but I thought you might get some comic relief from this.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:38 AM
Could Paul Martin lose LaSalle-Émard?
Saturday, January 14, 2006
Ups and Downs, Week Seven
The Conservatives -- 7/10
While it seems like an eternity ago, Monday and Tuesday's debate performances were solid showings for Harper. Very solid. He looked calm, composed, prime ministerial. The week rolled along well until Zeisman affair, which was arguably the first major pitfall for the Conservative campaign. (A similar Liberal incident only hours later deadened its effect.) But Harper was able to stay on message most of the time, and, unlike last time, is taking pains not be overconfident of the outcome.
Why points were removed: Zeisman controversy, tepid response to Liberal attack ads, Option Canada scandal not handled as well as could have been. It was a Liberal scandal, no Tories were involved. Also, the Tories appeared to botch the platform release Friday by not having some numbers added up properly, but this was quickly diffused.
The Liberals -- 4/10
They get points for announcing policy -- as back-of-the-napkin-ish as it was -- and for going on the offensive. But there isn't much else good to say. When it rains, it pours.
Why points were removed: These guys are running the worst campaign since (it's already becoming clichéd to say it) Kim Campbell in 1993. They just can't get a break. Just when a window opened with the Zeisman affair, what comes out hours later? Oh, the Liberal candidate in Abbotsford tried to bribe his NDP opponent to drop out of the race. The attack ads release was totally botched due to the removal of the English version of the the "army in our cities" ad, which dominated the news for about three days. Then Keith Martin, MP comes out and says whoever did the ad was "stpuid" -- just as Martin announced he personally approved them! Option Canada has further sullied the Liberal brand in Québec. Martin's Hail Mary notwithstanding promise in the debate looked ill-conceived and desperate -- a fact proved later when it was revelaed that the promise wasn't in the party's written platform document. Also, Liberal PR reps are embarrassing the party -- as has been pointed out here in comments, Susan Murray is flailing around like a lunatic on Don Newman's show, making them more desperately than already likely are.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:21 PM
Audio interviews
This week Tasha and I did separate phone interviews with The Commentary, an online magazine. Click here to listen to Tasha's and here for mine. (RealPlayer required). The book and the election are discussed.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:49 AM
Friday, January 13, 2006
The Think Twice Coalition
Did I call it or what?
Hehe.
OK, so Kiefer Sutherland wasn't there.
UPDATE (Saturday am): Christie Blatchford has a hilarious take on The Think Twice Coalition in today's Globe. Hilarious. Apparently there were twice as many thinking twicers as reporters at their press conference yesterday.
UPDATE II: According to a National Post report (no link) Sierra Club head Elizabeth May was brought to tears at the event as she said "Mr. Harper's policies are not just a threat to Canada, but to the world." Really disappointing behaviour from May -- who worked as a policy advisor to Mulroney environment minister Tom McMillan!
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 4:07 PM
The Tories and the constitution
I have an oped today in the Ottawa Citizen, which you can read here (no subscription required) about the need for the Conservative Party, if elected, to tackle the Québec question. As we discussed in Rescuing Canada's Right, the dominance of the national unity debate in federal politics works to the Tories' disadvantage. Despite what is happening in this campaign, I think it will continue to be that way. The closing:
Finding a lasting solution to the Quebec question is the only way true conservatism will ever flourish in Canada. The Conservatives are the only party that can make it happen -- because they are the only party that wants to.
I also posted here the article I wrote the day the government fell, again for the Citizen, on what the Tories need to do to win. I had sort of forgotten some of the stuff I wrote, but much of it has/is being done by Harper and the gang. Cool.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 3:52 PM
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Martin isn't telling the whole truth
The Adler show went well. One thing we discussed, which I haven't seen anywhere except here and on Andrew Coyne's site, is that the ad about Stephen Harper wanting to send the army into cities is still up in French on the Liberal website. (Click on the ad called "Pour contre.")
But Paul Martin is going around saying the ad was removed, as he did on Canada AM this morning:
Martin said he approved every one of the harshly critical ads -- including one that suggested the Tory Leader would use the military to occupy Canadian cities. The ad did not air and was pulled from the party's website within hours of being posted. But Martin said the ad was lifted simply because he didn't think it was very good.
Sure. Nice try. Although I guess we shouldn't be surprised to see the Liberals saying one thing in English Canada and another in Québec. (Oh wait, Jean Charest used to do that too!)
In other news, Reform-turned Canadian Alliance-turned Liberal MP Keith Martin thinks his leader is an idiot.
UPDATE: Typically good post with lotsa links by David Mader on this topic. The level of professionalism the Libs are exhibiting in this campaign is rivalling the Reform Party, circa 1988.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 4:43 PM
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Charles Adler tomorrow
FYI, I will be live on radio with Charles Adler tomorrow, January 12 at 3:05pm ET. Listen online or on QR77 in Calgary - CHED in Edmonton -CJOB in Winnipeg - Talk 640 in Toronto-CINW News 940 in Montreal-CHML in Hamilton or CFPL in London.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:04 PM
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
French debate thoughts
Martin definitely did better than last night. Quite a bit better. I think he scored one major point on the Iraq war question, where he attacked Harper and said it was wrong of him to go on American TV and question the decision to sit out the war. Other than that, it was pretty boring. Duceppe, because of the language question more than anything else, was probably best.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:25 PM
More on those ads + what's coming next
I've watched each of them about three times now. Boy, are those ever ugly. The Tories were out within minutes with two new ads ("Can we believe him?" and "Balloon"). Solid spots, in my view, but they don't have the same kind of impact.
Most people I've read in the last couple of hours seem to think these ads will have an impact, but no telling what kind. I guess we'll have to wait and see. But as my old friend Jimmy Burnett commented below, these could change political advertising forever in Canada. And not for the good.
Lest anyone be under any illusions, by the way, this is just the beginning of the negativity. Part of the next phase will be planned press events from various lefty groups warning about a Harper government. I can just see this story in Saturday's Toronto Star (or even the Globe, given their editorial bent the last couple of years):
TORONTO -- An unprecendented coalition of arts groups, political activist organizations and concerned citizens have banded together to warn Canadians about the dire effects of a Stephen Harper victory in the federal election.
A Tory government would force more people onto the streets, lead Canada into new wars, pillage the environment and end publicly-funded medicare, says the group, which includes such luminaries as Judy Rebick, Maude Barlow, David Suzuki, and members of the music group Barenaked Ladies.
"We're all here, putting aside our differences for the common cause of saving the country from this maniacal right-wing nutcase," said Kiefer Sutherland, the group's de facto spokesman.
Can't you just see it?
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 7:37 PM
There is a God
The new ads
For a party that likes to wax endlessly against any and all things American, the Libs sure do like American-style attack ads. Never quite seen anything like this in Canada.
With the poll numbers, though, I supose we should consider them predictable.
The question is, will voters fall for it?
UPDATE (PS) -- The claim in the Harris ad that the Common Sense Revolution caused deficits is bunk. Harris' reforms resulted in the Ontario deficit going from $12 billion when he took office to zero when he left. It was only under Ernie Eves' rudderless administration that the province went back into the hole.
UPDATE II: Paul Wells points to the new French Liberal ad, which is the worst of all. For those who don't speak French, one of the bullets is that Stephen Harper would "send the army into all our cities." You can just imagine the kind of images this conjures up in the minds of Quebecers aged 40 and over.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 1:31 PM
Monday, January 09, 2006
The Debate
Well, that was fun. Things really came into perspective for me tonight. We are quite possibly in the midst of witnessing one of the biggest shifts in Canadian campaign history. I don't think there's even been a worse performance by a sitting Prime Minister in a debate.
Can the man not string a proper sentence together?
And what was with the notwithstanding clause policy announcement? It has the "written on the back of a napkin" feeling. Made me think of Stockwell Day's "No 2-tier healthcare" sign. It is so transparently phony, so obviously motivated out of desperation, I can't imagine anyone buying it.
Stephen Harper was really impressive, again. An improvement on his performance from the first debate. His message remains focused, simple and straightforward. No-nonsense. People are looking for that right now. Layton and Duceppe, I think, were sideshows.
Dare I say it? Barring an unmitigated disaster, looks like the Tories will w.... No. I won't. Fourteen days is a long, long, long time. An eternity. Anything could happen. And knowing the media in this country, it probably will.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 10:51 PM
Monday morning notes
- To all the excited Tories out there, remember: hubris. This same thing happened in June 2004 and look what happened. Relax and expect the polls to tighten again.
- Don't forget our election blog over at Maclean's. There you can also read Maude Barlow, Warren Kinsella, Colby Cosh and, of course, Paul Wells.
- Partisanship aside, there are few more articulate and intelligent people in Canadian politics today than Akaash Maharaj. Check out his new blog. There are no hyperlinks, but I found his post about our recent debate on CBC Radio's The Current quite humorous.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 9:00 AM
Sunday, January 08, 2006
Ups and Downs, Week Six
The Conservatives -- 8/10
This was not at all a bad week for the Tories, but it wasn't their best either. Coming off the holiday break the policy announcements continued, with Stephen Harper vowing to crack down on crime, speed up recognition of foreign credentials for immigrants and introduce tax deductions for donating securities to charity. Harper was looking upbeat again on the campaign trail, even cracking a smile during speeches and interviews. This morning, he did what appeared to be a live interview in French on Radio-Canada's Les Coulisses du Pouvoir, and he did very well. His message to Québec is bang on, and polls show it is gaining traction. The Tories have the Big Mo -- without question -- and that counts for a lot in elections, as we all know.
Why points were removed: The one negative this week was Harper being put on the defensive about tax cuts (see below) because the Tories would reverse the Liberals' tax cuts, announced on the eve of the confidence vote. Taxes would still be lower under the Tories than the Liberals, but optically, a "tax hike" for low income earners is horrible. I'm not sure I liked the way Harper handled this -- basically saying "we have our own tax cut plan, and we will implement our own tax cut plan." Also, the Tories have not put out any really striking ads yet, they could be doing better on this score.
The Liberals -- 6/10
I cannot remember a Liberal campaign being this badly run in my life, going back to 1988 when I first started following these things. The wheels are starting to fall off, and reporting about the sentiment in the Grit backrooms seems to confirm it. I don't know what explains it, normally these guys know what they are doing. And I can't image they'd be dumb enough to actually plan for a poor Tory campaign. There is just an aura of panic all around; you can see it in the faces of Susan Murray, John Duffy and even the Prime Minister. It is desperation. But, things can change -- so don't write them off yet.
Why points were removed: Obviously, the emergence of two RCMP investigations ruins the campaign messaging no matter which party is. The Option Canada story will probably continue to make headlines for the two or three days, and the spectre of the Goodale investigation will remain for the rest of the election. Martin has tried to divert attention, with virtually no success.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:51 AM
Saturday, January 07, 2006
Tories and taxes
Stephen Harper has made another good policy announcement -- this time to remove capital gains taxes on securities donated to charity. This idea has long been pushed by people in the charities sector, and it has been proposed before. I even did so in my 2001 essay for the now-defunct Magna As Prime Minister Awards contest. The result would be a giant increase in charitable giving, as has been witnessed since the tax rate was slashed in half in 1997. (As I wrote in my essay, a report by Deloitte & Touche shows the average number of gifts of publicly listed securities increased 22 times from 1996 to 1999 and the average dollar value of the gifts increased 19 times.)
This announcement is being overshadowed, however, by the news that Harper would repeal the Liberals' recently-announced tax cuts. A Harper government would revert back to the higher rates for lower and middle income tax earners, while cutting the GST and others taxes. The end result is that everyone would pay less tax under a Tory regime, even with this small hike. However, the optics are not good. Not good at all. As Andrew Coyne observed, Harper should get the entire Tory platform out right away before this story spins out of control.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 5:35 PM
It's ok to be scary -- if you're a Liberal
Via Antonia Zerbisias comes a link to the latest video exposing media bias by Proud to Be Canadian. (Good for her for linking!) This stuff is so great. I cite this as yet another example of the type of subtle bias that is omnipresent in the media but is very difficult to quantify. Amazing work by Joel Johannesen. And to get Antonia agreeing? That's really something.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:01 AM
Friday, January 06, 2006
Are the wheels really falling off the Liberal campaign?
If you read this story, it certainly looks like it. Another RCMP investigation -- meaning Martin will be off message all day today and maybe longer -- and doom-and-gloom amongst Liberal backroomers.
"There are folks in the backroom of the Liberal party -- and I've heard this from a number of folks now -- that are very, very gloomy," The Globe and Mail's Gloria Galloway told CTV's Mike Duffy Live. "They are now talking about nothing but Stephen Harper as Prime Minister."
Galloway is no friend of the Conservative Party, so these comments are to be taken lightly. However, I do not recall any such reportage from Campaign 2004. Which may mean the tide really has turned.
But, Tories, CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION. There was a point in the campaign last year when everyone thought Harper would win, remember? Then the wheels fell off. Everyone should just continue doing exactly what they've been doing, and not get overconfident. The media loves to build people up and then tear them down.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 12:40 AM
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Announcement
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
The Current
I'll be on CBC Radio's The Current Thursday, January 5, at 8:30 a.m., debating Akaash Maharaj and Judy Rebick on the topic of the lack of vision in Canadian politics. Tune in if you can.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 5:54 PM
NY Sun blog
Those who have not checked out the blog of my former employer, The New York Sun, should do so for several reasons. One, it has a great name: "It shines for all." Two, it has a lot of stuff on a range of topics you won't likely find elsewhere on the web. Three, they are great writers with a lot of clever insight. Check it out.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 5:51 PM
Troubling sign from the UK Tories
Via Paul Tuns comes word that the new British Tory leader, David Cameron, whom I said I was willing to give a chance, is shifting the party to the Left:
Risking a clash with traditionalists, Mr Cameron suggested that Thatcherite policies had little or no relevance in modern Britain and that he would not be bound in any way by her thinking. The world was changing so fast that strict ideologies should be shunned in favour of a flexible approach to politics. In a warning to the traditional Right, he said: "There has been a tendency for some Conservatives to treat Britain, particularly our public services, as an ideological laboratory. But today, in a world that is constantly changing, we need open minds. At the next election a whole generation of people will be voting who were born after Mrs Thatcher left office. So when it comes to tackling the big challenges our society faces, I will not be the prisoner of an ideological past."
I'm not sure what the point of this rhetoric is. Maybe he knows something I don't, but somehow, I don't think attacking Margaret Thatcher is the best way to move forward.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 5:27 PM
Monday, January 02, 2006
Contest time: Guess That Ad
OK folks. We're kicking off 2006 here at daifallah.com with a contest. I haven't decided whether we'll have a prize or not, but its possible! The contest is to guess what the Liberal TV attack ads will look like. I know it will be difficult to distinguish between serious and satirical entries, but let's give it a go.
Will Stephen Harper be shown morphing into George W. Bush?
Will Belinda Stronach give an impassioned plea to "save Canada" from Harper and "the separatists"?
Will Harper be shown running into a gay wedding yelling "ME! ME!!" as the minister asks if anyone objects?
Whoever guesses the closest to an actual ad wins.
Go nuts.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:36 AM
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