I think the tendency since last week's Quebec election has been to over-analyze. Take some of these pieces.
Here is a quick primer (not necessarily based on what's found in the above-linked articles) with info people outside Quebec ought to know and which tries to shed light on some of the misconceptions I've heard:
FALSE: The third place finish of the Parti Québécois means sovereignty is dying.
The dream of an independent French-speaking country will never totally die.
MAY BE TRUE: The third place finish of the Parti Québécois means that party is dying.
If it doesn't wake up and find a way to connect with francophones outside Montreal, it could perish. Its leadership is totally out-of-synch with the political views of rural francophone Québec -- the sovereignist heartland. So far the PQ appears to be in denial and is showing no signs of doing the full-scale soul-search it needs to do.
FALSE: Mario Dumont and the ADQ are a federalist party.
The ADQ wants Québec to be "autonomous" within Canada, borrowing a line used by Maurice Duplessis. Many of the party's key people -- including Mario Dumont himself -- don't care about the rest of Canada.
FALSE: People who voted ADQ don't want Québec to become an independent country.
Some don't, but many do. The ADQ has in recent years become a home for non-socialist separatist voters -- ie., those outside Montreal and in the regions outlying Québec City.
MAY BE TRUE: The rise of the ADQ means conservatism is making headway in Quebec.
One election result does not make a trend. It makes an abberation. If these results continue for two or more elections, then we're onto something. This time I believe the ADQ's strong finish was the result of a host of circumstances mixed together in a stew, including André Boisclair's personal issues (he's gay and snorted cocaine while a Cabinet minister), a strong dislike of Jean Charest, the broken promises of the last government and a backlash -- stirred up in no small part by Dumont -- against ethnic minorities.
FALSE: The ADQ is an ideologically conservative party.
The ADQ cannot be easily placed on the left-right spectrum. It is basically a populist party that pushes the hot buttons, as we saw in this election. The views of its members are all over the map, from strong fiscal conservative-libertarians (many can be found in the youth wing) to outright leftist-socialists. There are strong federalists and strong sovereignists. There are many hard-core environmentalists in the party. Some ADQers are totally unideological and just like the idea of a third party. In short, there is no coherence amongst its membership base. However, it is noteworthy that the ADQ ran on a platform of openly advocating two-tier healthcare and abolishing school boards.
FALSE: The strong ADQ result shows there is a "new" bloc of conservative-minded voters emerging in Québec.
As recently explained by Conrad Black, this base of voters was always there. It's the old bleu voters who traditionally supported the old Union Nationale and Social Credit. They have been at best taken for granted and at worst ignored for years by the PQ and Liberals and they are now biting back.
TRUE: These results are good for Stephen Harper.
The ridings picked up by the ADQ mirror the ridings being targted by the Conservatives federally, and they can count on a lot of ADQers to help them when the time comes. Anyone claiming that Harper is weaker because he so obviously tried to help Charest and Charest faltered is out to lunch.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 9:05 PM
