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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com. This summer I am joined by Keir Wilmut and Omar Soliman.
Friday, December 14, 2007
The decline of Hillary
According to US political analyst Howard Fineman, Hillary Clinton is in danger of losing the Iowa caucuses and the ensuing first three primaries to Barack Obama:
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.
This is a stunning development that many thought impossible. This news may or may not help Hillary. Her decline could continue, yes, but this shock might also jolt her hardcores into fighting harder and saving her campaign.
I had never bought into the argument that she (and Rudy for the Republicans) were the inevitable picks. Hillary's challenge of maintaining front-runner status for that long was going to be pretty formidable under any circumstances. Obama is blatantly outshining her in the area where she happens to be weakest: genuineness. The power of momentum can never be underestimated.
As for Rudy, it's a bit of the same. Mike Huckabee is coming across as a real person and the others, including Romney, seem too phony and scripted. Voters are craving real people as politicians who will give you the straight, unvarnished goods.
UPDATE (2:30pm): Huckabee now in the lead in South Carolina! Guess why:
The survey suggested that Huckabee's personality was among his strengths. In particular, he tops the list when likely GOP voters are asked to name the candidate who is most believable. The South Carolina poll showed Huckabee rocketing ahead of his GOP rivals, including the former front-runner in the state, ex-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:40 AM
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