This weekend in London, Ont., Ontario Progressive Conservatives will gather for a general meeting to, amongst other things, decide whether or not they want John Tory to remain leader. Tory wants to keep the job, but substantial opposition has been mounted against him in the wake of last fall's crushing loss to Dalton McGuinty.
My view is pretty straightforward on this. Tory is a nice man, but he should go. I was actually surprised he didn't resign on election night. I'm aware of the argument that leaders deserve two tries. But consider:
1) He led the party to a worse finish than the 2003 Ernie Eves disaster.
2) He had three years to prepare for the election.
3) The McGuinty government had an abysmal record and was ripe for defeat.
4) He didn't even win his own seat.
Not exactly confidence-inspiring.
Everyone I've talked to in both camps say its impossible to accurately measure support levels. Having attended the 2005 PQ convention at which Bernard Landry was dumped, I can attest to the fact that the number of people claiming to be pro-leader is in now way indicative of their voting intentions. (If all who claimed to be supporting Landry had voted for him to stay, he would have received about 90% instead of the 75% he got.)
It's also unclear what Tory thinks is good enough. He has refused to cite a number. Constitutionally-speaking, he only needs 50%, but that's unrealistic. The Joe Clark bar is 67%, but 75% and up is the only way to continue with a truly united party.
Tory will get over 50%, that much is certain. The question is whether he reaches the magic 75% number. The anti-Tory camp is claiming he needs 80% to stay on. My view is:
- 65%-75% = resign as leader, but run for the job again in the ensuing race.
- >75% = clear mandate to stay as leader.
I think this is fair, and I imagine Tory is realistically thinking about the same.
