Another day, another poll, and this time its bad news for Team Dion:
"It's a cold shower for Liberal election plans," the Strategic Counsel's Peter Donolo told CTV.ca Wednesday. When respondents were asked which party they would vote for, nearly 40 per cent said they would back the Conservatives (percentage-point change from a Jan. 10-13 poll in brackets):
- Conservatives: 39 per cent (+3)
- Liberals: 27 per cent (-3)
- NDP: 12 per cent (same)
- Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)
- Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)
CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said that Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was pushing for an election Tuesday, and was considering voting down the federal budget in March.
"He happens to believe that if Canadians see him in an election campaign, they'll like him and elect him as prime minister," said Fife. Curious. This poll is starkly different from the poll last week showing the two parties in a virtual tie.
The conspiracy theorists among us will note that Peter Donolo is Jean Chrétien's former communications director and might be trying to aid and abet the movement inside the Liberal Party to stop Stéphane Dion from pulling the plug. Various Grit heavyweights, including Sen. David Smith, are trying to kibosh the leader's plans to defeat the government over the budget.
The more likely explanation is that this is just another example of the ups-and-downs of polling. Polls are a snapshot in time. I wouldn't read too much into this. The bottom line is that the Tories will have a good chance at a majority whether the election is now or in the fall.
