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Blog of Adam Daifallah -- author, journalist, law student. Lover of politics, writing, golf, curling, fitness, fashion, bacon and maple products -- not necessarily (but probably) in that order. Partisan of the Anglosphere. Contact me via email at adam@daifallah.com.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Outcomes and futures
For the first time since 2000, I worked on a federal election campaign. This explains why I wasn't posting. It was strictly volunteer, and quite minimal. I still enjoy being a non-partisan conservative, but I see no problem with taking time out to help on a campaign when one feels compelled, as the journalist Peggy Noonan did in 2004.
I wanted to be a part of something that I felt was the most important election of ... well, in my lifetime at least. I felt it was critical the Harper Tories win at least two elections -- main reason being I didn't want the 2006 victory to go down as a historical fluke. Back-to-back wins would solidify my faith in our (essentially) two-party system of government where each party alternate turns at power. British parliamentary systems work well that way and that goal was achieved.
I found the election night results surprising, but only because of what transpired during the campaign. When the writ was dropped, it was clear another minority was the most likely outcome, with about a 1/3 chance for a majority. After the first two weeks, that majority looked even more likely. (This was surprising given the number of gaffes committed, but every party was doing it so they seemed to cancel each other out.) Then came the economic carnage in the U.S. For a flicker of a moment, it looked as though the Conservatives might lose. But things stabilized again at the end and the result is an increased minority.
It was a bittersweet win, to be sure. But it is a win. There is a lot to cheer about but a lot to be disappointed about. The Conservatives increased their seat total, gained some great new potential cabinet ministers (Bob Dechert, Peter Kent and Lisa Raitt come to mind) and made more inroads into suburban Ontario and B.C. But we also saw some terrible results -- one that comes to mind is the Bloc winning the riding of Gatineau with 29% of the vote. That doesn't seem right. The NDP, having finally mastered the art of visuals and imagery, ran a great campaign and should have had a better result. And the Bloc continues to dominate Quebec.
There is a lot of disappointment that Quebec was lost for the Tories, particularly given the immense goodwill that had been built up in the last two years. There's plenty of blame to go around (Jean Charest's petulant and disloyal behaviour, the culture cut issue, young offenders, weak Tory candidates, etc.) but that won't do any good. If anything, this campaign proved again the adage, which serves as the opening line of John Duffy's indispensable book Fights of Our Lives, that "elections matter." You can only accept what happened and look to the next one, and the Tories have a lot of work to do.
Until then, there will be plenty of fun, including the impending Liberal leadership race. I never thought we would see the Liberals dip under 30% of the popular vote again, as they did in the 1984 Mulroney landslide. But they did. A new leader will improve their fortunes, but it won't be enough. A new head on a rotting carcass is only a temporary solution. The Grits need to experience the same kind of institutional renewal that the Canadian right went through in its decade in the wilderness from 1993-2003 if they want to regain their old stature.
# posted by Adam Daifallah : 11:59 AM
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